A letter is known to have come either from TATA NAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the envelope, just two consecutive letters "TA" are visible. What is the probability that the letter came from TATA NAGAR?

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7 months ago

This is a Long Answer Type Questions as classified in NCERT Exemplar

Sol:

LetE1:TheeventthatthelettercomesfromTATANAGARandE2:TheeventthatthelettercomesfromCALCUTTAAlso,E3:Theeventthatontheletter,twolettersTAarevisible.P(E1)=12,P(E2)=12andP(E3E1)=28andP(E3E2)=17[?ForTATANAGAR,thetwo consecutivelettersvisibleareTA,AT,TA,AN,NA,AG,GA,AR]P(E3/E1)=28and[ForCALCUTTA,thetwo consecutivelettersvisibleareCA,AL,LC,CU,UT,TTandTA]So,P(E3/E2)=17Now usingBayes'Therorm,wehaveP(E1/E3)=P(E1).P(E3/E1)P(E1).P(E3/E1)+P(E2).P(E3/E2)=12.2812.28+12.17=1818+114=187+456=711Hence,therequiredprobabilityis711.

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Maths NCERT Exemplar Solutions Class 12th Chapter Thirteen 2025

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