A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds: A1 , A2 , and A3 . They are sold as a mixture where the proportions are 4:4:2, respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60%, and 35%. Calculate the probability:

(i) Of a randomly chosen seed to germinate

(ii) That it will not germinate given that the seed is of type A3

(iii) That it is of type A2 given that a randomly chosen seed does not germinate.

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a year ago

This is a Long Answer Type Questions as classified in NCERT Exemplar

Sol:

Given  that  A1:A2:A3=4:4:2∴  P(A1)=410,  P(A2)=410  and  P(A3)=210  whereA1,A2  and  A3  are  the  three  types  of  seeds.Let  E  be  the  events  that  a  seed    and  E¯  be  the  events  that  a  seed  does  not  ∴  P(EA1)=45100,  P(EA2)=60100  and  P(EA3)=35100and  P(E¯A1)=55100,  P(E¯A2)=40100  and  P(E¯A3)=65100(i)  P(E)=P(A1).P(EA1)+P(A2).P(EA2)+P(A3).P(EA3)                     =410.45100+410.60100+210.35100                     =1801000+2401000+701000=4901000=0.49(ii)  P(E¯/A3)=1−P(E/A3)=1−35100=65100=0.65(iii)  ,  Bayes'  Theorem,  we  get         P(A2/E¯)=P(A2).P(E¯/A2)P(A1).P(E¯/A1)+P(A2).P(E¯/A2)+P(A3).P(E¯/A3)                              =410.40100410.55100+410.40100+210.65100=16010002201000+1601000+1301000                              =160220+160+130=160510=1651=0.314Hence,  the  required  probability  is  1651  or  0.314

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Maths NCERT Exemplar Solutions Class 12th Chapter Thirteen 2025

Maths NCERT Exemplar Solutions Class 12th Chapter Thirteen 2025

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