36. A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is found to be red. Find the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.

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8 months ago

36. Let E1 be the event of selecting first bag

E2 be the event of selecting second bag

P(E1)=P(E2)=12

Let A be the event of getting a red ball

P(A/E1)=P (drawing a red ball from first bag)

=48=12

P(A/E2)=P (drawing a red ball from second bag)

=28=14

Then, probability of drawing a ball from the first bag which is red, is given by Baye's theorem,

P(E1/A)=P(E1).P(A/E1)P(E1).P(A/E1)+P(E2).P(A/E2)

=12*1212*12+12*14

=1438=23

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