43. Two groups are competing for the position on the Board of directors of a corporation. The probabilities that the first and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if the first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding probability if 0.3, if the second group wins. Find the probability that the new product introduced was by the second group.

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8 months ago

43. Let, E1: event that first group will win

E2: event that second group will win

A: event that new product will produce

P(E1)=0.6=610=35

P(E2)=0.4=410=25

P(A/E1)=P (introducing new product by group A ) =0.7=710

P(A/E2)=P ( introducing new product by group B ) =0.3=310

Therefore, by Baye's theorem,

P(E2/A)= probability that new product introduced was produced by second group

P(E2/A)=P(E2).P(A/E2)P(E1).P(A/E1)+P(E2).P(A/E2)

=25*31037*710+25*310

=6502150+650

=650*5027=29

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