39. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (i.e., if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If 0.1 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?
39. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (i.e., if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If 0.1 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?
39. Let, event person has disease
event person has no disease
be event that blood test is positive
As and are events which are complementary to each other,
Then,
(result is positive given that person has disease)
(result is positive given that person has no disease)
Now, the probability that per
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P (2 obtained on even numbered toss) = k (let)
P (2) =
P (
If x = 0, y = 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
If x = 1, y = 7, 8, 9, 10
If x = 2, y = 8, 9, 10
If x = 3, y = 9, 10
If x = 4, y = 10
If x = 5, y = no possible value
Total possible ways = (5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1) * 2
= 30
Required probability
P (2W and 2B) = P (2B, 6W) × P (2W and 2B)
+ P (3B, 5W) × P (2W and 2B)
+ P (4B, 4W) × P (2W and 2B)
+ P (5B, 3W) × P (2W and 2B)
+ P (6B, 2W) × P (2W and 2B)
(15 + 30 + 36 + 30 + 15)
Let probability of tail is
⇒ Probability of getting head =
∴ Probability of getting 2 heads and 1 tail
ax2 + bx + c = 0
D = b2 – 4ac
D = 0
b2 – 4ac = 0
b2 = 4ac
(i) AC = 1, b = 2 (1, 2, 1) is one way
(ii) AC = 4, b = 4
(iii) AC = 9, b = 6, a = 3, c = 3 is one way
1 + 3 + 1 = 5 way
Required probability =
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